Breaking down the arms race in the AL East
The Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles have all gotten better this offseason.
At this point in the offseason, there is not a division in baseball that has improved as much and is as deep as the American League East.
While the Tampa Bay Rays have taken their usual “one eye on the present and one on the future” approach, the other four teams have been spending money, making trades and preparing for what looks to be one of the most compelling and competitive division races in recent memory.
Here is a quick recap on what the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles have done so far:
Toronto Blue Jays
2025 Record: 94-68, lost in World Series
Key Additions: RHP Dylan Cease (7-year, $210 million), 1B/3B Kazuma Okamoto (4-year, $60 million), RHP Tyler Rogers (3-year, $37 million), RHP Cody Ponce (3-year, $30 million)
Key Departures: INF Bo Bichette (signed 3-year, $162 million contract with Mets)
Free Agents: RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Seranthony Dominguez, INF Ty France, UTIL Isiah Kiner-Falefa
The Blue Jays did not waste any time after coming within inches of winning the World Series. In the first major move of the offseason, they signed the polarizing Dylan Cease to a deal that blew every projection out of the water.
But, right now, the big story with the Blue Jays is that they were not able to bring back Bo Bichette or land any of the other big bats like Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman. I personally am not very worried about that. The Blue Jays showed that they can win without Bichette, making it through most of September and the first two rounds of the postseason with him sidelined due to injury. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is of course pencilled in at first base and all-world defender Andres Gimenez is looking like he will be the everyday shortstop. At second base and third base, a combination of Kazuma Okamoto, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider should be able to provide the Blue Jays with quality production both at the plate and in the field.
Bichette was tied for the fewest outs above average at shortstop in the Major Leagues with -13. The Blue Jays will of course miss his bat, but now have the potential to field one of the best defensive infields in baseball and with perennial Gold Glove candidate Daulton Varsho roaming center field, could be an elite run prevention unit.
A lot of the Blue Jays’ success will depend on 22-year-old Trey Yesavage, who showed some truly dominant flashes in the postseason, including 5 ⅓ no-hit innings in the ALDS against the New York Yankees and seven innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the World Series, after a brief Major League cameo in September. His rookie eligibility is still intact for 2026. Will he continue to improve on his impressive performances on the biggest stage and contend for the AL Rookie of the Year? Or, will he regress now that there is more tape on him and struggle to recapture his October magic, similar to what happened to Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter after he stepped up in the 2023 postseason.
New York Yankees
2025 Record: 94-68, lost in ALDS
Key Additions: LHP Ryan Weathers (trade with Marlins), INF Paul DeJong (minor league contract)
Key Departures: RHP Devin Williams (signed 3-year, $51 million contract with Mets), RHP Luke Weaver (signed 2-year, $22 million contract with Mets), RHP Mark Leiter Jr. (signed 1-year, $2.85 million contract with Athletics)
Free Agents: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, RHP Jake Cousins, OF Austin Slater
The biggest priority for the New York Yankees this offseason has been retainment and recovery. They were able to re-sign Cody Bellinger without having to give him seven years, which is a significant win for the Yankees front office. After Trent Grisham accepted the qualifying offer following a career year at the plate, the Yankees have their outfield set for 2026, with Bellinger in left, Grisham in center and Aaron Judge in right field, giving them the flexibility to use Jasson Dominguez and prospect Spencer Jones in trades.
Other than Bellinger and Grisham’s return, the health of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Anthony Volpe and Giancarlo Stanton is what is most important for the Yankees as Spring Training approaches. Cole missed all of last season with Tommy John surgery and is expected to return in May at the earliest. Rodon is expected to miss Opening Day after having surgery to remove a bone spur in his left elbow earlier this offseason. Anthony Volpe had offseason shoulder surgery and is expected to return in May. While Stanton does not have any new injuries, he has missed significant time each of the last four seasons and has consistent, lingering knee issues.
The bullpen still has some question marks, especially after losing Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to the Mets, but if they are able to tread water until the trade deadline when more reinforcements will likely be available, there should not be too much concern. Cashman showed last year that he is not afraid to get aggressive adding relief options at the deadline when he brought in David Bednar, Camilo Doval and Jake Bird.
If Cole and Rodon are able to return close to 100%, then the Yankees will have one of the most imposing rotations in baseball. Cole, Max Fried, Rodon, new acquisition Ryan Weathers and postseason hero Cam Schlittler. That, coupled with a lineup featuring seven players with 30+ home run power give the Yankees clear World Series potential.
Boston Red Sox
2025 Record: 89-73, lost in Wild Card Round
Key Additions: LHP Ranger Suarez (5-year, $130 million), 1B Willson Contreras (trade with Cardinals), RHP Sonny Gray (trade with Cardinals), RHP Johan Oviedo (trade with Pirates)
Key Departures: 3B Alex Bregman (signed 5-year, $175 million contract with Cubs), RHP Richard Fitts (trade with Cardinals), RHP Hunter Dobbins (trade with Cardinals), LHP Steven Matz (signed 2-year, $15 million contract with Rays), OF Rob Refsnyder (signed 1-year, $6.25 million contract with Mariners)
Free Agents: RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Liam Hendriks, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, LHP Justin Wilson
There is not a team in baseball except for possibly the Dodgers that has the combination of elite starting pitching and rotation depth as the Red Sox. They were already looking great after trading for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, but pivoting to signing Ranger Suarez after losing Alex Bregman to the Chicago Cubs has put them over the edge. With Garrett Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Brayan Bello and Oviedo looking like the top five as of now, the Red Sox have six other pitchers who will be competing for starts.
Connelly Early and Payton Tolle are both two of the most promising young pitchers in baseball. Kyle Harrison was the headliner of the controversial Rafael Devers trade. Tanner Houck was an All-Star in 2024. Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval are both Major League-caliber starters when healthy.
The questions for the Red Sox are with their lineup. Without Bregman, there is still a hole in the infield at either second base or third base (Marcelo Mayer can play either at a high level). There is still a surplus of outfielders, with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Roman Anthony all deserving of a starting spot. Trevor Story and new acquisition Willson Contreras are getting older.
The potential improvement of the Red Sox’s younger players will be the most important factor for the team’s success in 2026. Anthony, Mayer, Carlos Narvaez and Kristian Campbell were all rookies last season. Rafaela is entering his age-25 season. Abreu is entering his age-26 season. The oft-injured Triston Cases is also still just 26. Because the Red Sox did not add a star bat this offseason, they will have to rely on internal improvement to take a step forward.
Baltimore Orioles
2025 Record: 75-87, missed postseason
Key Additions: 1B Pete Alonso (5-year, $155 million), RHP Ryan Helsley (2-year, $28 million), RHP Shane Baz (trade with Rays), OF Taylor Ward (trade with Angels), RHP Andrew Kittredge (trade with Cubs)
Key Departures: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (trade with Angels)
Free Agents: C Gary Sanchez, RHP Tomoyuki Sugano
In new Baltimore Orioles owner David Rubenstein’s second full offseason with the team, he has finally spent, bringing in prized slugger Pete Alonso to man first base and hold down a spot in the middle of the order. The Orioles also made one of the most underrated trades this Winter, sending the oft-injured Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for the perpetually-underrated Taylor Ward, who quietly hit 36 home runs last season.
There is no doubt the Orioles can hit, with Alonso and Ward joining Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser in what will inevitably be one of the most feared lineups in MLB. The biggest question mark is Adley Rutschman, who significantly regressed in 2025 after looking like one of the game’s elite catchers in his first three seasons. Even if Rutschman looks more like his 2025 self than his 2022-24 self, no pitcher will want to face the Orioles.
The Orioles still need pitching. The most obvious answer would be to sign Framber Valdez, who is the clear top free agent left at this point in the offseason and is running out of viable destinations as teams spend more and more money. The trade market for starting pitchers is also thinning, with Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore recently being dealt. The only front-line starters who are likely to be moved still are Joe Ryan and Kris Bubic.
If the Orioles are able to get another starter, they should be able to compete in the AL East. They deserve a lot of credit for finally investing in their roster and bringing their young core some much-needed reinforcements. New manager Craig Albernaz, who played a key role in the Guardians’ recent success, has his work cut out for him, but the Orioles have a real chance to make some noise.
Predictions:
Yankees (best record in AL)
Blue Jays (1st Wild Card)
Red Sox (2nd Wild Card)
Orioles (3rd Wild Card)
Rays