Did the pitcher make or a mistake or get outplayed?

Every home run of the first two days of the MLB Division series

Oct 07, 2025

The following is every home run hit in the first two days of the Division Series. The heat map shows each hitters xWOBA on all pitches seen from the same handedness of the pitcher.

Generally, if the pitch is in the red, past results say that they can hit that spot hard. That is considered a “mistake.” The blue indicates the opposite, so if they still hit it out, they outplayed the pitcher.

This is an oversimplified version of how I used to use scouting reports when I played and I thought you may enjoy seeing it the same way.

Disclaimer: Obviously, more context is always better and Im not trying to say all of these pitchers are stupid. Pitching is mostly mistakes after all.