Don't sleep on the Blue Jays
A lot has been going right for the Toronto Blue Jays, one of this season's biggest surprises.
With just about three weeks left before the postseason, the Toronto Blue Jays are in prime position to make a run through a wide open American League. Surprised? You’re not alone.
There was not a lot of optimism surrounding the Blue Jays ahead of this season. After striking out on signing Shohei Ohtani the previous offseason, they once again failed to reel in the biggest fish in free agency, Juan Soto. They also lost out on Roki Sasaki despite making a desperate push for the prized Japanese phenom by taking on Myles Straw’s $11 million contract to get an extra $2 million in international signing money.
Perhaps most concerningly, there was a lot of uncertainty with Toronto’s core following a last place finish in the AL East. Bo Bichette was coming off of a disastrous, injury-plagued season in which he regressed into one of the worst hitters in all of baseball. At age 35, George Springer looked like he was going to continue on a steady decline. Franchise cornerstone Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who was entering the final year of his contract, made headlines with his very public negotiation with the Blue Jays front office about a potential extension that included a Feb. 18 deadline, social media posts and call outs in interviews.
Things began to turn around when the Blue Jays were able to finally get someone to take their money when they signed Guerrero to a historic 14-year, $500 million extension in early April. With that monkey off their back, the Blue Jays have been able to surge to the top of a very competitive division and are in play for the best record in the AL.
The newly-extended Guerrero is having a dominant season as usual, but the contributions up and down the Blue Jays’ roster outside of Vladdy are what has been so impressive. On the offensive side, role players like the versatile Addison Barger and Ernie Clement have stepped up. When healthy, Daulton Varsho has been playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field and is quietly having the best offensive season of his career, slugging an absolutely ridiculous .595 with 18 home runs.
On the pitching side, a veteran rotation led by Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios and rounded out by two former Cy Young winners, Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber, is more than capable of supporting one of the league’s most productive offensive units (1st in AVG, 1st in OBP, 5th in SLG and 6th in runs scored).
While Guerrero of course gets most of the headlines, a very convincing argument can be made that the two most important pieces to the Blue Jays’ turnaround are Bichette and Springer.
Coming off of an All-Star season in 2023 in which Bichette continued to show that he was one of the best pure hitters in baseball, the Blue Jays shortstop had one of the most disappointing and perplexing seasons in recent memory. In 81 games in 2024, Bichette slashed just .225/.277/.322 with four home runs and a -0.3 bWAR. While health certainly played a factor, with Bichette suffering a calf strain in June and re-aggravating the injury just a month later in July before being shut down for the season in September with a broken finger, there was legitimate discourse surrounding Bichette’s future with the Blue Jays.
Any concerns about Bichette following his struggles last season have been put to rest. While he just went on the 10-day injured list with a knee sprain, he has returned to form and once again has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He leads the Majors with 181 hits and 44 doubles, has career-highs with a .311 AVG, .357 OBP and .840 OPS and is in the 100th percentile with a .307 xBA. In just his age-27 season and with free agency looming this offseason, re-signing Bichette should be the Blue Jays’ top priority.
Given his age, Springer’s decline over the last few seasons made a bit more sense. Since joining the Blue Jays in 2021 after being a crucial part of the Houston Astros’ original championship core, Springer’s numbers have gradually gotten worse. While Springer was still a productive player, he was nowhere near the perennial All-Star and MVP candidate that he was in Houston.
In what has been one of the most impressive individual performances in baseball this season, Springer has turned back the clock. One of the biggest reasons why–manager John Schneider has returned Springer to the leadoff spot. In his last 20 games since returning from the concussion IL on Aug. 16, all batting at the top of the lineup, Springer is hitting .346 with nine home runs and an other-worldly .731 SLG.
For the whole season, Springer has career-bests with a .301 AVG and .395 OBP. Looking at his Baseball Savant page, there is a whole lot of red. The Blue Jays slugger is in the 98th percentile for Batting Run Value, xwOBA and xSLG, 97th for xBA, 94th for Barrel % and Launch Angle Sweet Spot % and 90th for Chase %. While there is no chance of Springer catching Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh in the AL MVP race, do not be shocked to see him get some votes and potentially push for a top-five finish, especially if the Blue Jays hold on in the AL East and earn a first-round bye in the postseason.
With every team in the AL having very real and exploitable flaws, the Blue Jays have a clear path to the World Series. They can hit, that is for sure. But, if their pitching is able to come together in October, the Blue Jays could end up being a legitimate contender.
Things are looking pretty good for a team that was struggling to find anyone to take their money in free agency the past two offseasons.