Dylan Cease’s contract will break the starting pitcher market

A look at what the rest of the offseason could look like after Cease's deal with the Blue Jays

Dylan Cease signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday. Almost everything about this signing was shocking, and could have drastic repercussions for the rest of the offseason. Let’s break it down.

Cease is represented by super agent Scott Boras. Boras is known for his willingness to hold out as long as possible to try and squeeze every last dollar out of teams to get his clients the largest possible contracts. That was seen most clearly during the 2024 offseason when a group of top free agents, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell, all waited until after pitchers and catchers reported to sign deals.

It is not unheard of for Boras clients to sign early, like Snell did when he signed his five-year, $182 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last year on Nov. 30. But it is definitely not Boras’ standard operating procedure.

After coming within inches of winning the World Series and with two of their starters, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer, entering free agency, it is clear that the Blue Jays did not want to risk waiting on signing a starter. They certainly did not, blowing Cease and Boras away with an offer they could not refuse and bolstering their rotation just before American Thanksgiving.

The seven-year, $210 million deal that the Blue Jays gave Cease was significantly more than experts’ pre-offseason projections. MLB Trade Rumors, which many in the industry view as the most realistic and accurate, ended up being the closest and projected Cease would get a seven-year, $189 million contract. Tim Britton of The Athletic projected a six-year, $174 million contract. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN projected a five-year, $145 million contract.

Some of the uncertainty and variability that came with looking at a potential Cease contract came from his year-to-year inconsistencies. Despite having some of the most electric stuff in baseball, showcased by his MLB-best 11.5 SO/9 last season, Cease’s overall production did not seem to match that high strikeout rate.

Cease’s 4.55 ERA pops out as a potential area of concern. While ERA is no longer a metric that front offices usually use to gauge the value of pitchers, it is still a warning sign. Some of Cease’s ERA can be explained away by poor defense showcased by his relatively lower 3.56 FIP and an early-season start in the Athletics’ minor league ballpark in Sacramento where he gave up nine earned runs, but he also gave up 71 walks, the second-most in the National League.

2025 was not the first year Cease has struggled. In a very 2010s San Francisco Giants fashion, Cease has not been able to string together consecutive seasons with elite production. In 2022 and 2024, Cease was one of the most effective pitchers in baseball and earned top-five Cy Young finishes. In 2023, Cease struggled like he did in 2025, putting up a 4.58 ERA. Despite Cease’s strikeout ability, there is enough of a sample size to show that there are legitimate control and consistency issues.

That is part of the reason why the specific figures of his deal with the Blue Jays are so surprising. Cease has not performed like the type of pitcher who has gotten these mega-deals in the past. The only pitchers in MLB history who have signed larger contracts than Cease are Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-year, $325 million), Gerrit Cole (nine-year, $324 million), Stephen Strasburg (seven-year, $245 million), Justin Verlander (10-year, $219.5 million), Max Fried (eight-year, $218 million) and David Price (seven-year, $217 million).

Garrett Crochet, last season’s AL Cy Young runner-up, signed a six-year, $170 million extension in April. Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner (who also dealt with his own inconsistencies) signed a five-year, $182 million deal last offseason. In the 2024 offseason, Aaron Nola signed a seven-year, $172 million deal.

If Cease was able to get such a large deal, what will his free agent starting pitching peers get later this offseason? Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Cease’s former San Diego Padres teammate Michael King and Tatsuya Imai all have arguments that they are better than Cease and should earn more money. Especially for Suarez and Imai, who are both Boras clients, expect the Cease deal to be used as somewhat of a framework in negotiations.

What about in the trade market? Many thought the Boston Red Sox overpaid for Sonny Gray when they gave up a top-five prospect and another promising young pitcher for the 36-year-old Gray, who has another year plus a mutual option for 2027 left on his contract. But, based on what Cease earned, that may have been a bargain. For some of the other top available pitchers on the trade market like Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, MacKenzie Gore, Freddy Peralta, Kris Bubic and Joe Ryan, their prices just skyrocketed.

The biggest potential starting pitcher available for trade is of course reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Even though he only has one more year of team control left before hitting free agency, it is difficult to imagine the type of godfather offer that it would take for the Tigers to even consider moving their ace now.

Do not even try to think about what a potential Paul Skenes trade could look like…

Teams always need pitching. This offseason, Cease’s contract showed that it will be tougher and more expensive to get than ever before. The ripple effects will be fascinating to see. Buckle up!