Making sense of the Orioles' decision to trade Grayson Rodriguez

A look at Grayson Rodriguez's injury history and Baltimore's offseason plans

The first major trade of the offseason broke on Tuesday night, with the Los Angeles Angels sending perpetually under-appreciated slugger Taylor Ward to the Baltimore Orioles for the oft-injured righty Grayson Rodriguez.

There is a lot to unpack from this trade. First of all, it is always fun to see a legitimate baseball trade featuring two proven Major League talents. It seems like nowadays most deals are just contenders unloading no-name prospects to worse teams for players nearing the end of their deals. But Ward and Rodriguez, when healthy, are both fringe All-Star-caliber players going between teams that should both be trying to contend in the 2026 season.

The big question from this trade regards the Orioles. They are not exactly in the position to be moving on from proven, Major League starting pitching. Last season, their rotation’s 4.65 ERA was 13th in the American League. Looking towards their offseason, everyone around baseball had identified starting pitching as Baltimore’s biggest need.

For the Angels, this deal was a no-brainer. As an organization, the Angels have struggled to develop pitching, which has been one of the biggest reasons why they have been unable to capitalize on so much of the offensive talent that has come through Anaheim. Last offseason, the Angels threw a three-year, $63 million contract at Yusei Kikuchi to try and help, and while he put together a productive season, it was not enough to carry one of the worst staffs in baseball. Rodriguez will be an immediate upgrade and could end up being their ace if he is able to stay healthy.

So, why did the Orioles move on from Rodriguez? Were there serious enough injury red flags for them to feel like moving him was their best option despite their lack of starting pitching depth? Do they have other moves to acquire starting pitching lined up?

Looking at Rodriguez’s health, he missed the end of his stellar 2024 campaign where he went 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 20 starts due to a back injury. This past season, he was sidelined to begin the year with elbow inflammation, missed more time with other shoulder and back injuries and was eventually shut down without having thrown a pitch to receive season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

Rodriguez is just 26 and has only played two seasons in the Major Leagues. It would not be surprising for the Orioles to have significant long-term concerns about Rodriguez’s ability to stay healthy and pitch a full season, something he has yet to do. Speaking to the media after the trade on Wednesday, Rodriguez said that he is planning on being ready for the start of Spring Training (via the Associated Press). However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had some reporting on Thursday that goes a bit against what Rodriguez said.

“The trade of right-hander Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for Ward does not alter the Orioles’ pitching equation — they were not counting on Rodriguez for much, at least in 2026,” Rosenthal wrote.

If that really is the case, that Rodriguez’s 2026 season is in doubt, then the Orioles made out great. Having been buried outside the national spotlight with the Angels for his entire career, Ward has quietly developed into one of the most underrated power hitters in all of baseball. Last season, he hit 36 home runs and drove in 103 runs and should be in line to man left field at Camden Yards.

Even with the concerns regarding Rodriguez’s health, the Orioles do not have enough organizational starting pitching depth to be competitive next season without making some additions. Insiders have been reporting all offseason that they expect the Orioles to be major players in free agency, even potentially pursuing the consensus top free agent Kyle Tucker. While Tucker would be a great boost to the middle of the Orioles lineup, they still need pitching, now more than ever following the Rodriguez trade.

Kyle Bradish is expected to be fully healthy for the 2026 season after returning late this season from Tommy John surgery. Trevor Rogers, who was one of the biggest surprises in baseball, recording a sub-two ERA and even earning Cy Young votes in 18 starts, will be counted on at the top of the rotation as well. Outside of Bradish and Rogers, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells could both contribute but they have their own injury concerns as well.

The top available free agent starters are Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Tatsuye Imai, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen and Michael King. Starters potentially available for trade include Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan from the Minnesota Twins, Kris Bubic from the Kansas City Royals and Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins.

The Orioles could also look just about an hour south in D.C. at Washington Nationals ace Mackenzie Gore, or do what they did two offseasons ago and trade for a Milwaukee Brewers ace with one more year of team control, this time Freddy Peralta instead of Corbin Burnes.

The Orioles still have a surplus of young, infield bats the trade from. Even if they are committed to spending in free agency, president of baseball operations Mike Elias is running out of time to capitalize on his young players’ trade value. Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad will all struggle to find regular playing time at the Major League level if the Orioles lineup is fully healthy. There is enough value there to put together a deal for a front-end arm.

At first glance, trading Rodriguez seems like a crazy move for an Orioles team desperate for innings. But maybe it makes a bit of sense. Now, one thing is for sure: the pressure for the Orioles to add another starter this offseason is through the roof.